The Twilight of Investment Boom in Housing Market Alongside Revival of Mortgage Lending

Analysis of the current situation in the domestic real estate market indicates a clear slowdown in the dynamics of investment purchases. Experts from PKO BP emphasize that at the current level of interest rates, real estate has ceased to be the only "safe haven" for capital. Investors, who during the pandemic period were buying apartments en masse with cash, are now more frequently directing funds towards treasury bonds or deposits, which offer a more attractive risk-return ratio. The relative attractiveness of renting has clearly declined, and the stabilization of rents amid high property prices limits the current profitability of such ventures. In the years 2020–2021, with near-zero interest rates and rapidly rising inflation, the housing market became the main escape route from losing the value of savings, leading to record price increases.However, we are simultaneously observing a revival in the segment of buyers purchasing properties for their own needs. Data from the Barometr Metrohouse and Credipass report indicate record values of newly granted mortgage loans, which in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded the 30 billion PLN barrier. The scale of this phenomenon is a direct consequence of the Monetary Policy Council's decision to cut rates by a total of 1.75 percentage points. As a result, many Poles have regained borrowing capacity, which translated into a decrease in the monthly installment by about 120 PLN for every 100,000 PLN of borrowed capital. The market also faces the specter of new legal regulations. Poland, implementing EU guidelines, is preparing to regulate the short-term rental market. The government plans to create a central register and introduce penalties for illegal activity. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Finance is considering limiting the phenomenon known as flipping, including by modifying the housing tax relief. These changes may force professional players to change tactics, leading to the professionalization of the long-term rental sector. „Prywatni właściciele mieszkań na wynajem najczęściej posiadają jedno mieszkanie, które zabezpiecza ich majątek. Czują się bardzo niekomfortowo z tym, że państwo zrównało ich z dużymi podmiotami i zobligowało do ponoszenia ciężaru polityki socjalnej.” (Private apartment owners for rent most often own one apartment that secures their assets. They feel very uncomfortable that the state has equated them with large entities and obligated them to bear the burden of social policy.) — President of Fairy Flats, rental market expert Prospects for the years 2026–2027 remain moderately optimistic for developers, who expect steady growth in debt-financed demand. It is estimated that the mortgage portfolio value may grow at a rate exceeding 7% annually. Although the era of the speculative boom has passed, the market is moving towards greater maturity, where the foundation becomes the real housing needs of citizens, not just the desire to quickly multiply capital.