Hungarian Elections: Viktor Orbán Scares with War and Ukraine as Opposition Gains Lead

The political situation in Hungary has become critical for the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition. The latest polls indicate that the TISZA party, led by Péter Magyar, has gained a nearly twenty-percentage-point lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's party. In response to these unfavorable trends, the head of government has launched a campaign based on radical negative messaging. The main element of this strategy is building a sense of war threat. Orbán publicly claims that an opposition victory would mean Hungary being directly dragged into the conflict in Ukraine. Government media are intensifying attacks on Kyiv, suggesting that the Ukrainian side is planning attacks on Hungarian critical infrastructure. Experts point to the enormous financial resources being allocated to social media advertisements that use deepfake technology to discredit opponents. Relations with European partners have further deteriorated. The German weekly "Der Spiegel" openly called for Hungary's exclusion from the European Union, arguing that Orbán's policy is destroying community solidarity. Simultaneously, a sharp exchange of words occurred in the digital space between the prime ministers of Poland and Hungary. Donald Tusk ironically commented on Budapest's stance, to which Viktor Orbán responded in German, which commentators interpreted as an attempt to needle the Polish prime minister in the context of his previous work in EU institutions. Domestically, the opposition is mobilizing around the slogan of returning to democratic standards, pointing to Poland as a model of successful power change. Some smaller opposition parties have decided to withdraw their candidates to avoid splitting votes and strengthen TISZA's chances of ultimate victory. The Fidesz party has been in continuous power in Hungary since 2010, systematically restructuring the state system towards so-called illiberal democracy, which has repeatedly led to conflicts with the European Commission. Despite the aggressive campaign, the ruling camp seems to be losing ground. Traditional methods of mobilizing the hardcore electorate, based on sovereigntism and aversion to Brussels, are becoming ineffective in the face of moral scandals and a difficult economic situation. The opposition, in turn, skillfully exploits society's fatigue with long-term rule by one team. The upcoming vote will be seen as a civilizational choice between continuing Orbán's isolationist policy and returning to the mainstream of European politics. The outcome of these elections will be of fundamental importance not only for Hungary but for the balance of power in the whole of Central Europe and the future of the Visegrád Group. „Herr Donald Tusk, machen Sie sich keine Sorgen um die ungarische Demokratie. Wir kommen ohne Ihre Ratschläge besser zurecht.” — Viktor Orbán