The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains stable and high support despite continuous reports of internal scandals, as confirmed by the latest analyses and polls ahead of state elections. Political scientists explain this through the phenomenon of a protest party, whose voters are tied to an anti-establishment program rather than to its leaders. Critics, however, emphasize that this resilience may also be a result of deep societal polarization and the AfD electorate closing itself off to information outside its own media bubble.

Stable support despite scandals

Analyses and polls indicate that numerous personal scandals and corruption affairs within the AfD are not significantly impacting its electoral ratings. The party remains in second place in federal polls and is the strongest opposition force in several states.

Electorate tied to the program

According to political scientists such as Uwe Jun, the AfD's strength stems from the fact that it is a programmatic party, not one based on charismatic leaders. Voters support it in protest against the political establishment, not out of sympathy for specific politicians.

Scandals reinforce the message

For the AfD electorate, reports of scandals are not proof of the party's immorality, but confirmation of the thesis about a corrupt system. Mainstream media are perceived as part of the establishment attacking the AfD, which paradoxically may further integrate its supporters.

Test ahead of state elections

The AfD's resilience to image crises will be verified during the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg. The results will show whether the protest party model can survive long-term under conditions of continuously fueled conflict.

The German political scene is grappling with a paradox: the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains unfazed by waves of scandals that, in the case of traditional parties, usually lead to drastic drops in support. Reports of nepotism, corruption suspicions, and internal conflicts are not reflected in the polls. The party consistently maintains around 20 percent support at the federal level, being the strongest opposition force, and in some eastern states, such as Thuringia and Saxony, it regularly exceeds 30 percent. „Bei der AfD sind nicht charismatische Führungspersönlichkeiten Träger der Stimmen. Es ist eine Programmpartei. Genau deshalb haben persönliche Affären so wenig Einfluss auf sie.” (In the AfD, it is not charismatic leadership personalities that carry the votes. It is a programmatic party. Precisely for that reason, personal affairs have so little influence on it.) — Uwe Jun

The mechanism of this resilience is described by political scientist Uwe Jun. For its voters, the AfD is primarily a vehicle for clear opposition to the political establishment represented by the ruling coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP, and against migration and climate policy. A vote for the AfD is a vote of protest, not an expression of trust in specific politicians. Consequently, when mainstream media – perceived by this electorate as part of a corrupt system – report on another scandal, it reinforces among the party's supporters the belief in a conspiracy by elites against the only true opposition. The scandal becomes part of the narrative, not a reason to abandon it.

The phenomenon of a protest party's resilience to personal scandals is not new in Europe. The French National Front (now National Rally) under Marine Le Pen repeatedly survived internal crises and financial affairs without lasting damage to its core electorate's support. Similarly, Italy's League under Matteo Salvini maintained stable support despite controversies surrounding its leader. The key factor appears to be voters' deep identification with the anti-establishment message, which outweighs individual politicians' mistakes.

This mechanism will soon be put to a practical test. In the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg, the AfD has a chance to strengthen its position and even aspire to become the strongest force. Previous scandals, such as those concerning party financing or offensive statements by its politicians, have not caused its supporters to turn away. Moreover, the party is effectively building its own media ecosystem, consisting of online portals and social media channels, which successfully isolates its electorate from external criticism and offers an alternative narrative. This closing off into an 'information bubble' further hinders critics from getting their arguments across.

Mentioned People

  • Uwe Jun — German political scientist, professor at the University of Trier, commenting on the AfD's resilience to scandals.