Hungary: Polling breakthrough and growing opposition chances to oust Fidesz

The political situation in Hungary has sharply intensified, as confirmed by the latest data from public opinion research centers in March 2026. For the first time in over a decade, the Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is losing its leading position to a broad opposition coalition. The dynamics of change suggest that the previous model of governance, based on tight control of media and administration, is no longer yielding the expected results. Government attempts to publish compromising materials targeting the opposition leader did not have the intended effect and even strengthened anti-government voter mobilization. Voters appear tired of the long-term dominance of a single party and rising living costs, creating a realistic scenario for a change at the top of power in Budapest. Fidesz has governed Hungary continuously since 2010, holding a constitutional majority for most of this period, which allowed for a deep restructuring of the state system. Simultaneously with the strengthening of the main opposition bloc, support for far-right parties has increased, further complicating the future structure of the Hungarian parliament. Analyses indicate that a potential opposition victory would be an event of European scale, ending the era of illiberal democracy in this country. However, experts emphasize that Fidesz's state machinery and the specific electoral system are tailored to the current power, meaning that a polling lead alone does not yet guarantee taking over the reins of government. The coming weeks will be a period of intense campaigning, in which both sides will likely resort to the most radical arguments and political tools. 16 lat — Fidesz's dominance on the Hungarian political scene lasts Events in Hungary are being followed with great attention in Poland, where a change of government in Budapest is viewed as a "black scenario" for some right-wing politicians. Particular concerns are expressed by activists associated with Zbigniew Ziobro's circle. Losing Viktor Orbán as a strategist and partner in the European Union could mean the complete isolation of the Polish right in Brussels. For leaders of Sovereign Poland, including Marcin Romanowski, the Hungarian model served as a reference point for many domestic reforms. The collapse of this model in our southern neighbor would be a strong symbolic signal, suggesting the inevitable end of populist trends in the region. „Ez nem csak egy parlamenti csata, hanem harc a szuverenitásunk megőrzéséért.” (This is not just a parliamentary battle, but a fight for preserving our sovereignty.) — Viktor Orbán