Financial market conditions deteriorated sharply at the end of February 2026. The escalating conflict between the USA and Iran pushed gold prices above $5,200 and oil prices higher, directly impacting fuel price forecasts in Poland. The Polish currency is losing value amid global risk aversion, while investors anxiously await Fitch's evening decision on Poland's credit rating.
Record Gold Prices
Tensions between the USA and Iran caused investors to flee to safe-haven assets, pushing the price of the precious metal above $5,200 per ounce.
Fuel Price Hikes in Poland
Analysts forecast increases in gasoline and diesel prices at the beginning of March; diesel could exceed the 6 złoty per liter barrier.
Zloty Under Pressure from Fitch
The Polish currency is losing value in anticipation of a credit rating update, coinciding with a global strengthening of the US dollar.
The end of February 2026 is marked by high nervousness in global and domestic markets. The main factor determining sentiment is the escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran. This situation has led to sharp increases in the prices of strategic commodities. The price of gold broke through the historic barrier of $5,200 per ounce, becoming a safe haven for capital in times of uncertainty. Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices raise serious concerns about transport and logistics costs, which could translate into lower corporate profits. On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the WIG20 index deepened its losses, mainly influenced by a sell-off in bank shares and a dominant risk-off sentiment. Drivers in Poland must prepare for a difficult start to March. Analyses by e-petrol.pl and Reflex bureaus point to inevitable price hikes at gas stations. It is forecast that gasoline prices will rise by about 4 groszy, and diesel by 3 groszy per liter. Experts warn that diesel could break the psychological barrier of 6 złoty at any moment. These negative forecasts are reinforced by the weakening zloty, burdened by uncertainty related to today's decision by the Fitch agency. A potential downgrade of the rating outlook could lead to further depreciation of the Polish currency and higher yields on government bonds. Following the US attack on Iranian General Soleimani in 2020, oil prices reacted with a similar sharp spike, showing how sensitive the global energy supply chain is to events in the Persian Gulf.„W przyszłym tygodniu na stacjach paliw spodziewane są podwyżki.” (Price hikes are expected at gas stations next week.) — Analysts at e-petrol.plAn additional risk factor for markets is the latest US producer price data, which came in higher than analysts' expectations. This suggests that inflationary pressure in the world's largest economy remains strong, which could prompt its Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Such a scenario supports the US dollar, making it more attractive to investors while hitting the currencies of developing countries like Poland. Investors are also closely watching the rivalry between Russia and Iran for the Chinese oil market, which in the longer term could change the balance of power in energy commodity trade. 5200 USD — is the record price of gold per ounce