US Offers Venezuela Oil to India to Reduce Purchases from Russia

The United States is conducting advanced negotiations with India regarding the sale of oil from Venezuela. As stated by the US energy envoy, „active negotiations are underway for the sale of Venezuelan oil to India to help diversify its sources of raw materials” — Sergio Gor. These actions are part of a broader strategy by Washington, which has been pressuring New Delhi for months to reduce its imports of Russian oil. In exchange for diversifying supplies and reducing purchases from Russia, the US has offered India a reduction in tariff rates on goods imported from the country. This condition has been explicitly set by the American administration. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the imposition of broad Western sanctions on the Russian energy sector, countries such as India and China have become key recipients of Russian oil sold at a significant discount. The US and EU are attempting to limit Russia's revenue from raw material exports while simultaneously seeking alternative sources for allies. India's response to American pressure is ambivalent. On one hand, the government in New Delhi has extended by one month the permits for four Russian insurance companies – Soglasie Insurance Company Ltd., Ugoria Group of Insurance Companies, Sberbank Insurance, and ASTK Insurance LLC. This allows these firms to continue insuring tankers docking at Indian ports and thus maintain the import flow. This decision is temporary and reflects an attempt to balance the necessity of maintaining supplies with obligations to Washington. On the other hand, India is clearly increasing imports from other directions.

Changes in Oil Imports to India (February 2026): Import from Russia: Dominant (approx. 1.7 million b/d) → Under pressure, partially replaced; Import from Saudi Arabia: Significantly lower than Russian → Increase to 1.0-1.1 million b/d; Import from Venezuela: None or symbolic → Subject of negotiations with the US One direct consequence of US pressure on India is the increased uptake of Russian oil by China. According to ship-tracking data collected by Bloomberg, deliveries of Russian raw material to Chinese ports rose in the first 18 days of February to 2.09 million barrels per day. This is an increase from the previously recorded level of 1.72 million b/d. Chinese refineries are eager to take on the raw material that is becoming less attractive to India for political reasons. Thus, Moscow easily finds alternative buyers, and Washington's entire geopolitical maneuver may yield limited effects in terms of reducing Russia's income.

Simultaneously, India is increasing imports from Saudi Arabia. According to Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia, deliveries from this country are estimated to reach between 1 million and 1.1 million barrels per day in February. This is the highest level since November 2019 and a value close to current imports from Russia. This increase is a direct response to the diversification of sources.

Estimated Daily Oil Imports to India in February 2026: Russia: 1100, Saudi Arabia: 1050, Venezuela (under negotiation): 0 The oil from Venezuela proposed by the US would constitute another alternative. Washington has eased some sanctions on Caracas in recent months, enabling the export of raw material. However, an attractive price is key for India, and Venezuelan oil is heavier and requires specialized refineries.

Key Dates in Energy Relations: February 20, 2026 — US confirms negotiations with India; March 20, 2026 — Expiry date for Russian insurers' licenses The entire situation illustrates the complexity of the global energy market under sanctions. The US is using economic leverage in the form of access to its own market to influence an ally. India, as Asia's third-largest economy dependent on oil imports, is trying to maintain energy sovereignty and low fuel costs while balancing between major powers.

Liberal media may portray US actions as necessary pressure on an ally to join the economic isolation of the aggressor. | Conservative media may criticize American pressure as interference in the sovereign decisions of a partner state and an attempt to impose its own interests at the cost of market destabilization.