Analysis of Russia's Potential: War Economy Could Survive for Several More Years

Analysis of Russia's military and economic potential on the fourth anniversary of the conflict sheds new light on the effectiveness of international restrictions. According to analytical centers, the Kremlin has managed to adapt the state structure to the realities of a prolonged confrontation, allowing it to conduct operations on the current scale for the next two years. This success is based on effectively circumventing sanctions and strengthening ties with Beijing. A sharp increase in goods traffic has been recorded on the Russian-Chinese border, and energy supplies form the financial foundation of the war machine. Although budget revenues from raw materials fell by 18% due to the need to offer discounts, the volume of oil exports is paradoxically higher than before February 2022. Running a war economy requires the complete subordination of civilian industry to the needs of the front, which in the history of the Soviet Union led to a gigantic increase in arms production in the 1940s, but simultaneously permanently weakened the consumer goods sector. Simultaneously, the scale of abuses in the financial system has been revealed. Russian entities transferred approximately $8 billion through British dependent territories, which prompted London to impose nearly 300 new economic sanctions. The new strike targeted the pipeline giant Transneft and the "2Rivers" network, used for illegal raw material trading. Experts point to the English Channel as a key operating area for the shadow fleet, which remains almost invisible to traditional monitoring systems. Faced with Russian resilience, European countries are confronting a serious technological challenge. Reports indicate deep deficits in EU army equipment, which is poorly prepared for asymmetric threats and intense material warfare. Shortages particularly affect air defense systems and modern communication technologies. This situation calls into question European strategic security in the longer term, forcing immediate investments in the defense industry.