Latest data indicates significant resilience in Russia's oil sector, with export volumes 6% higher than pre-invasion levels. Despite an 18% drop in revenue, Moscow is effectively circumventing restrictions by using British overseas territories and a shadow fleet. In response, London has imposed sanctions on the giant Transneft, while Ukrainian drones have for the first time attacked a key pumping station, forcing a reduction in crude shipments.

Record Export Volume

Russia is exporting 6% more oil than before the war, effectively bypassing Western sanctions thanks to new Asian directions.

Sanctions on Transneft

The United Kingdom has imposed restrictions on the Russian pipeline giant and the 2Rivers trading network utilizing British territories.

Drone Attack on Infrastructure

A Ukrainian attack on a pumping station forced a reduction in shipments by 250,000 barrels per day, causing concern in the USA.

Analysis of global trade flows on the fourth anniversary of the full-scale war outbreak reveals a paradoxical situation in Russia's energy sector. Russia is currently exporting 6% more oil than in 2021, indicating a deep reorientation of export markets towards Asia. The main tool for bypassing international restrictions has become the so-called shadow fleet, which operates primarily in the waters of the English Channel. Furthermore, it has been revealed that Russian companies transferred approximately $8 billion through British dependent territories, forcing London to introduce a package of nearly 300 new sanctions. These directly targeted the state-owned pipeline operator Transneft and the secretive trading network "2Rivers," operating via mail servers connecting legitimate companies with entities under embargo. The operational situation for Russia has deteriorated due to a successful Ukrainian drone attack on a key oil pumping station. This incident forced Transneft to immediately reduce supplies by 250,000 barrels per day. However, this attack has caused diplomatic tensions along the Kyiv-Washington line. The United States reportedly warned Ukraine against strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, fearing a sharp rise in global fuel prices and destabilization of the global economy. Despite physical damage to infrastructure, Moscow is increasingly using larger tankers to transport crude to China, allowing for partial compensation of losses resulting from pipeline disruptions. For decades, the global oil market has reacted with instability to conflicts in extraction and transit regions. The energy crises of the 1970s showed that the strategic use of natural resources as a political tool can lead to recession in industrialized countries. Financially, however, the Kremlin is recording losses. Total revenues from oil and gas exports fell by 18% last year. This is a direct result of applying high price discounts for customers in India and China and a drastic increase in logistics costs. British intelligence emphasizes that tightening the financial system in the Cayman Islands and Gibraltar will be crucial for further weakening Putin's war machine. London has announced rigorous audits in these tax havens to prevent the masking of trade transactions worth billions of dollars.

Mentioned People

  • Władimir Putin — President of Russia, whose war machine funding relies on oil revenues.