The latest public opinion polls indicate a decline in support for the ruling camp, which, in light of electoral forecasts, could mean losing a majority in the future parliament. At the same time, a record-breaking, double-digit result for Grzegorz Braun's party was recorded, opening the door to a theoretical coalition between PiS and Confederation. The situation is complicated by reports of a split within the Poland 2050 parliamentary club and speculation regarding the political future of Mateusz Morawiecki, which could permanently alter the balance of power on the Polish political scene.

Coalition Loses Majority

Polls indicate that Donald Tusk's camp currently lacks stable support to govern independently.

Success of Braun's Party

Grzegorz Braun's formation records a double-digit result, becoming a potential kingmaker in the future parliament.

Split in Poland 2050

Internal conflicts in Szymon Hołownia's party threaten the cohesion of its parliamentary club and the stability of the government.

Uncertain Future for Morawiecki

Reports are emerging about the possibility of the former prime minister leaving PiS due to tensions with Jarosław Kaczyński.

The latest polls on electoral preferences bring a radical shift in public sentiment, indicating that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk could currently lose power. Available data suggests that the parties forming the current government no longer hold a stable majority in the Sejm, a result of escalating internal disputes and negative assessments of the cabinet's actions to date. Particular attention is drawn to the rise in support for Grzegorz Braun's formation, which in selected polls achieves results close to or exceeding 10%. Such a balance of power in some seat distribution simulations makes a government scenario based on an agreement between Law and Justice and Confederation mathematically possible, although the polling average still indicates high uncertainty for such a scenario. The situation within the former majority is further destabilized by a deep split in the Poland 2050 parliamentary club. Despite official assurances from the Minister of Funds and Regional Policy, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, that her party remains part of the government, behind-the-scenes talk points to "sharpening knives" among the conflicting factions. Simultaneously, tensions are rising within the largest opposition party between the chairman and the former prime minister. Unofficial findings suggest that Mateusz Morawiecki may be considering leaving the ranks of PiS, which would be a historic moment for this political formation. In the history of the Third Polish Republic, the stability of ruling coalitions has often been tested mid-term, frequently leading to cabinet reshuffles or, as in 2007, to early parliamentary elections following the collapse of the PiS-Self-Defense-LPR coalition.An additional factor weakening Jarosław Kaczyński's position is the stance of the President, who on personnel and strategic matters increasingly takes positions differing from the party line of Nowogrodzka Street. Tobiasz Bocheński, mentioned as a potential candidate of the chairman for the highest offices, faces criticism from other right-wing politicians, including Krzysztof Bosak, who points out inconsistencies in his messaging. The public debate also features Rafał Brzoska as a potential "new Hołownia," capable of capturing part of the centrist electorate, which could further fragment the political scene. „Jesteśmy w rządzie Tuska, ale nie będziemy przytakiwaczem” (We are in Tusk's government, but we will not be a yes-man) — Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz

Mentioned People

  • Donald Tusk — Prime Minister of Poland, leader of the Civic Coalition, who according to polls is losing his parliamentary majority.
  • Jarosław Kaczyński — Chairman of PiS, grappling with internal party disputes and a decline in faith in his effectiveness.
  • Grzegorz Braun — Leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown, whose formation recorded a record-breaking rise in the polls.
  • Mateusz Morawiecki — Former prime minister, about whom speculation is emerging regarding a departure from Law and Justice.
  • Tobiasz Bocheński — PiS politician, mentioned as a favorite candidate of Chairman Kaczyński, criticized by his competitors.