Monday's session on financial markets was marked by high volatility triggered by new declarations from Donald Trump regarding tariffs. While the lack of military escalation in the Middle East allowed the Warsaw Stock Exchange to stage an impressive rebound, major exchanges in the USA and Western Europe recorded declines. Investors are anxiously analyzing the consequences of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision and announcements of further tariffs, which could fuel inflation and impact interest rate policy.

Tariff Chaos in the USA

President Trump announced a 10-15% tariff increase after the Supreme Court ruling questioning the legality of previous tariffs.

Strength of the Warsaw Trading Floor

The WIG20 rose by 1.6%, benefiting from the lack of escalation of conflict with Iran and capital outflow from base markets.

Lagarde on Artificial Intelligence

The ECB head argues that Europe can benefit from implementing AI in industry, even if it is not a leader in its creation.

Gold in Consolidation Phase

The price of the precious metal is stabilizing around $5000 per ounce after a series of sharp increases at the beginning of the year.

The beginning of the week in capital markets brought violent reshuffling caused by the dynamics of political events in the United States. After the U.S. Supreme Court questioned the legality of some tariffs introduced by Donald Trump, the president announced their increase by another 10 to 15 percent. This declaration introduced chaos to the trading floors in New York, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded losses exceeding 1% already in the first phase of trading. The financial and industrial sectors were particularly hard hit, while capital sought safe haven in defensive stocks. Against this backdrop, the Warsaw Stock Exchange stood out positively. The WIG20 index gained 1.6%, becoming one of the strongest indicators in Europe. The rebound in the domestic market was possible due to improved sentiment towards emerging markets, despite the uncertainty prevailing on the base exchanges in the USA and Western Europe. The Polish złoty also gained, strengthening noticeably against the dollar, euro, and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, sentiment was cooled by Christine Lagarde, who indicated that despite lags in creating new artificial intelligence models, Europe can still benefit from its implementation in industry. The history of trade wars shows that the introduction of broad tariffs often leads to periods of heightened volatility, known as "tariff noise," which forces central banks to revise monetary policy in the face of stagflationary risk.The situation in the commodities market remained stable, although gold entered a consolidation phase in the range of $4850–$5050 per ounce. Goldman Sachs experts revised their oil price forecasts for the end of 2026, assuming a drop to around $60 per barrel despite solid demand. The technological part of the market is currently focused on the upcoming results of Nvidia, which are to verify the real value of the ongoing AI boom. „Schon jetzt fällt die Erholung seitdem so stark aus, dass die Konsolidierungsphase seit dem Jahreshoch als zwingend trendbestätigend bullish gilt.” (The recovery is already so strong that the consolidation phase since the annual high is considered compellingly trend-confirming bullish.) — Marcel Mußler

Mentioned People

  • Christine Lagarde — President of the European Central Bank, spoke about the benefits of AI for the European economy.
  • Donald Trump — President of the USA, whose decisions to increase tariffs caused uncertainty in financial markets.