Friday's session on financial markets was marked by the dominance of the U.S. currency and growing uncertainty about future interest rates. In Poland, the WIG20 index recorded declines, dragged down by a sell-off in Kruk and Allegro shares. Global investors are anxiously analyzing U.S. core inflation data, which turned out higher than expected, significantly pushing back the prospect of rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Strong dollar weakens the zloty

The American currency gained almost 1% against the zloty over the week, pushing the USD/PLN exchange rate toward 3.58 due to the hawkish stance of the Fed.

Weaker results from the debt collection giant

The Kruk Group estimated its profit for the fourth quarter at 208 million PLN, disappointing the market which expected 231.8 million PLN and triggering a sell-off of its shares.

Gold at the threshold of 5000 dollars

The precious metal is testing the $5,000 per ounce barrier, and Goldman Sachs forecasts further increases due to purchases by central banks.

Budget breakthrough in Japan

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced the end of austerity policy, focusing on intensive investments and strengthening the Japanese armed forces.

The past week in financial markets was dominated by the return of the narrative about 'higher interest rates for longer.' The main source of pressure came from U.S. economic data, including a higher-than-forecast reading of core PCE inflation, which rose 0.4% month-on-month in December. As a result, the Fed is sending increasingly hawkish signals, leading to a sharp strengthening of the dollar. The USD/PLN exchange rate rose almost 1% over the week, directly hitting the valuations of Polish assets and sentiment on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. On the Warsaw trading floor, companies with a large share of foreign investors lost the most. The debt collection firm Kruk recorded a drop of over 4% after publishing estimated results for the fourth quarter of 2025, which turned out to be 10% lower than market consensus. Meanwhile, Bank Pekao, despite announcing readiness to reorganize the PZU Group and reporting an 8% improvement in lending activity, failed to sustainably push the WIG20 index above key resistance levels. The market situation is further complicated by the record value of granted mortgage loans, which amounted to 106 billion PLN in 2025, although experts warn about the impact of high rates on the future profitability of this sector. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the correlation between the strength of the dollar and the weakness of emerging markets, including Poland, remains one of the strongest mechanisms in global capital markets. Simultaneously, dynamic changes are observed in commodity markets. Gold remains near a record level of $5,000 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions, although analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their year-end forecast to $5,400. In agriculture, sentiment is mixed: wheat prices on the MATIF exchange rose to 193.75 euro/t, but on an annual basis remain over 15% lower. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is in a phase of 'extreme fear,' where Bitcoin is losing ground to the strong dollar, oscillating around $67,000 amid massive institutional capital outflows. „In five years, we will catch up with Great Britain in GDP per capita adjusted for price levels.” — Andrzej Domański

Mentioned People

  • Andrzej Domański — Polish Minister of Finance, announcing the goal of catching up with Great Britain in terms of GDP per capita.
  • Cezary Stypułkowski — CEO of Bank Pekao, commenting on the bank's results and plans for the reorganization of the PZU Group.
  • Sanae Takaichi — Prime Minister of Japan, announcing a new era of investment and a departure from fiscal austerity.