Germany: Country's population to shrink by 10% by 2070

According to the latest forecasts from the ifo Institute in Dresden, Germany's demographic situation is far more serious than previously thought. Analysis of current data provided by Destatis suggests that by 2070, Germany's population could fall by 10 percent. This is a tenfold greater scale of decline than previous estimates, which spoke of a regression of around 1 percent. Such a drastic change in forecasts results from new trends in fertility and net migration, which no longer balance the aging society process. Experts warn that these changes will be uneven. The eastern federal states will be particularly affected, where rural depopulation is progressing fastest. Conversely, city-states may paradoxically record a slight increase, further deepening regional disparities. Germany has been struggling with a low fertility rate for years, which fell below the replacement level as early as the 1970s, making the country one of the fastest-aging societies in Europe. The director of the ifo Institute, Joachim Ragnitz, emphasizes the need to immediately incorporate this data into decision-making processes. A smaller population means a need to reduce employment in public administration and lower demand for transport and housing infrastructure. At the same time, the burden on long-term care and geriatric systems will increase drastically. „The intensified decline and aging of the population must be taken into account today in political decisions with long-term consequences, for example in the area of health and care.” — Joachim Ragnitz 10% — decline in Germany's population by 2070 The main challenge is the deepening labor shortage, which could hamper the growth of the eurozone's largest economy. The ifo Institute indicates that the current pace of demographic change requires a restructuring of the entire welfare state model. Projected decline in Germany: 2025: 0, 2070: -10 Revision of demographic forecasts to 2070: Population decline: 1% → 10%; Main challenge: Local shortages → Widespread labor shortage Liberal media emphasize the need to increase labor immigration as the only way to save the stability of social systems and the labor market. | Conservative media focus on the costs of an aging society and the need to reform public spending and support families.