Strait of Hormuz Blocked: Energy Prices Soar, European Stock Markets Plunge Drastically

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has transformed into a global economic crisis of an unprecedented scale. According to the latest reports, around 240 ships, including numerous supertankers, remain trapped in the area of this key strait. The blockade of the route through which one-fifth of the world's demand for crude oil flows has led to an immediate increase in fuel prices. On the stock exchanges in London and Paris, an atmosphere of uncertainty prevails, with indices such as the DAX or Ibex losing several percent in a single session. German economists warn that a prolonged conflict could raise the inflation rate in the eurozone by up to one percentage point, which in turn would force the European Central Bank to halt planned interest rate cuts. The crisis is hitting not only energy but also the continent's medical security. Experts point out that closing the sea route from Asia paralyzes the supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients, which could lead to shortages in pharmacies. In Italy, industry organizations estimate potential economic losses at the level of 33 billion euros, warning of the risk of eliminating 200,000 jobs. Meanwhile, in France, Minister of Economy Roland Lescure appeals for calm and assures that there are no technical reasons for mass fuel hoarding at gas stations, even though wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel show a strongly upward trend. The Strait of Hormuz, which is only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, has been repeatedly used by Tehran as a tool of geopolitical pressure. The most acute phase of tensions occurred in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, when both sides attacked each other's tankers. Prospects for European economic growth have significantly deteriorated. However, some analysts suggest that a potential collapse of the current regime in Iran could, in the longer term, accelerate Germany's GDP by 0.5% thanks to the opening of new markets and stabilization of the region. Currently, fear of military escalation dominates, which has driven gas prices in Europe to a level of around 40 euros per MWh, representing a 50% increase since the beginning of the year. Although prices are the highest in many months, analysts warn that only a complete blockade of LNG supplies could drive them towards 70-80 euros per MWh. The Milan stock exchange is losing nearly 4%, and investors are massively withdrawing capital from risky assets, directing it towards the dollar and gold. The situation remains extremely dynamic, and markets are anxiously awaiting further diplomatic and military steps by the powers. „Der Iran-Krieg könnte die Inflation um bis zu einen Prozentpunkt steigen lassen.” (The Iran war could raise inflation by up to one percentage point.) — Lars Feld „Il n'y a aucune raison de se ruer sur les stations-service.” (There is no reason to rush to gas stations.) — Roland Lescure