A massive attack by US and Israeli forces on targets in Iran has led to a sharp sell-off on global trading floors and a flight of capital to safe havens. Oil and gas prices recorded their highest gains in years, and the Polish zloty came under strong pressure, losing significant ground against the dollar and euro. Investors fear a prolonged conflict that could destabilize the European economy and fuel inflation.
Drastic increase in commodity prices
Oil and gas prices are rising sharply following the halt of LNG supplies from Qatar and the attack on Iranian infrastructure.
Sharp weakening of the zloty
The Polish zloty is losing ground against the dollar and euro, becoming one of the weakest emerging market currencies.
Sell-off on the WSE
Shares of energy and commodity companies are losing value; PGE records declines reaching 7 percent.
Reaction of the chemical industry
Grupa Azoty halts order acceptance and withdraws price lists due to gas price instability.
An attack by US and Israeli forces on infrastructure in Iran triggered an immediate chain reaction in the global economy, hitting emerging markets particularly hard, including Poland. Investors are massively selling off risky assets, which translated into deep declines on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Energy companies are losing the most, such as PGE, whose shares fell by nearly 7% in the morning due to concerns about energy carrier costs. The WSE recorded one of its worst mornings in years, and indices are in the red across Europe. The situation in the commodities market is critical. Following reports of halted LNG supplies from Qatar, gas prices in Europe have skyrocketed. Analysts from Santander bank warn that sustained high fuel prices could push the inflation rate up by at least one percentage point in the second half of the year. Simultaneously, the zloty has weakened drastically — the US dollar strengthened, pushing the Polish currency into the ranks of the weakest in the world. The Polish currency reached a level of 4.26 against the euro, complicating the situation for commodity importers. Iran possesses the world's fourth-largest oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas deposits. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the country has remained in a state of permanent tension with the West, which has repeatedly led to energy crises impacting global transport and industry. Industry reactions are immediate and drastic. Grupa Azoty, one of Europe's largest fertilizer producers, decided to halt new orders and withdraw current price lists due to the unpredictability of production costs. „This will extend periods of shocks in the markets” — Capital market representative Experts cited by Bloomberg assess that the European economy has a chance to survive this shock without falling into a deep recession under one condition: the conflict must be resolved within a maximum of one month. A prolonged war will lead to lasting fuel shortages and the necessity to introduce war surcharges for logistical transport. 7% — decline recorded by PGE shares after the attack The Ministry of State Assets and government representatives are appealing for calm, assuring that Polish fuel storage facilities are filled to a degree guaranteeing energy security in the short term. Nevertheless, global logistics is already reacting to the threat — shipping companies are massively adding war risk surcharges, which will inevitably translate into higher prices for consumer goods in the coming weeks. Financial markets are now awaiting official statements from Tehran and further steps from the administration in Washington.