Polling Shifts on the Political Scene: KO Leads, Significant Rise for Confederation

The latest party preference studies conducted by the Polish National Research Group and Social Changes indicate significant reshuffling on the Polish political scene in February 2026. Although the Civic Coalition consistently maintains its leader position, it has recorded a noticeable drop in support, which in some rankings amounts to even 4.5 percentage points. At the top of the ranking, KO receives between 33% and 34.5% of votes, ahead of Law and Justice, which can count on support of around 27-28% of respondents. The biggest beneficiary of the current situation is Confederation Liberty and Independence, recording spectacular gains and solidifying its third place with a result exceeding 14%. The electoral system in Poland is based on the d'Hondt method, which favors large groupings and stable coalitions, meaning that even small support fluctuations of a few percent can drastically change the distribution of seats in the Sejm.The situation within right-wing circles is becoming increasingly complex, as alongside the main Confederation current, the electoral threshold is also being crossed by Confederation of the Polish Crown under the leadership of Grzegorz Braun, obtaining nearly 9% support. Meanwhile, smaller government coalition partners, such as The Left and Poland 2050, are struggling with fluctuating ratings, sometimes balancing on the edge of the electoral threshold. Experts point to growing fatigue among part of the electorate with the current power arrangement, which is driving support for anti-system formations. Since the political transformation in 1989, the Polish political scene has been characterized by high polarization, and the main axes of conflict have evolved from the post-communist divide to the current conflict between liberal-democratic and conservative-sovereigntist visions.Equally interesting reports come from Budapest, where a new poll by the daily „Népszava” has been published. It indicates that Prime Minister Fidesz Viktor Orbán may lose power to the opposition party TISZA. The opposition electorate shows record mobilization at 87%, which poses a serious challenge to the existing balance of power in Hungary ahead of the upcoming elections scheduled for April 12. „Confederation repelled the first attack from Braun, but this is not the end of the story.” — Łukasz PawłowskiSupport for Political Parties in Poland (February 2026): Civic Coalition: 34.5, Law and Justice: 27.8, Confederation Liberty and Independence: 14.4, Confederation of the Polish Crown: 9.0, The Left: 8.55 pkt proc. — is the difference between KO and PiS in the Social Changes study