The final decade of February brings a sudden change in weather across Europe. While Spain records temperatures reaching 20 degrees Celsius, locally referred to as "veranillo de febrero," Poland is grappling with a dynamic thaw. The influx of mild polar maritime air is displacing Arctic frost, resulting not only in rising temperatures but also risks of flooding and dangerous convective phenomena such as early spring storms.

Veranillo de febrero in Spain

Temperatures in Madrid and Andalusia reach 20 degrees Celsius with full sunshine and no precipitation until the end of the week.

Rapid thaw in Poland

The warming brings thaws and ice break-up on rivers, generating a risk of local flooding in the southern part of the country.

Risk of thunderstorms and black ice

The influx of unstable polar air creates conditions for the formation of convective thunderstorms, unusual for February.

The end of February 2026 is being recorded as a period of exceptionally high temperatures in many European regions. In Spain, particularly in Andalusia and around Madrid, thermometers are showing values more typical of late spring than winter. In the Spanish capital, sunshine and lack of precipitation allowed temperatures to reach the 20-degree Celsius threshold, leading meteorologists to dub this anomaly "February's little summer." However, the Spanish national meteorological service AEMET warns that from this coming weekend, southern regions such as Jerez de la Frontera or Córdoba may experience rainfall interrupting the current idyll. In Poland, the situation is much more dynamic due to a rapid transition from frosty winter to early spring. The displacement of Arctic air masses by warmer, humid air from the Atlantic is associated with numerous hazards. IMGW-PIB has issued a series of alerts concerning thaw and black ice in the country's northeast. Particular attention is drawn to the forecasted convection, which could bring the first thunderstorms of the year in a belt from the Baltic coast to Lower Silesia. Historically, temperature records for February in Poland and Spain have been repeatedly broken over the last two decades, which climatologists link to progressing climate warming. Poland's record for February is as high as 21.4 degrees Celsius and was set in 1990 in Maków Podhalański.Meteorologists caution against excessive enthusiasm, reminding that March is rarely stable weather-wise. Although current forecasts predict temperatures rising to around 15 degrees Celsius in southwestern Poland in the latter half of the week, periodic cooling is still very likely. Dr. Grzegorz Duniec from the Center for Meteorological Protection of the Country notes that the weather variability characteristic of early spring could bring frosts even in mid-March. „Estamos ante un episodio de calor muy poco habitual, con temperaturas que superan en más de 10 grados lo normal para esta época del año.” (We are facing a very unusual heat episode, with temperatures exceeding the normal for this time of year by more than 10 degrees.) — Jose Miguel Viñas

Mentioned People

  • Grzegorz Duniec — Meteorologist from the Center for Meteorological Protection of the Country IMGW-PIB.