The escalation of armed conflict in Iran triggered a sharp reaction in financial and energy markets. The German DAX index recorded a painful drop of nearly seven percent over two days, falling below the 24,000-point level. At the same time, prices for gasoline, diesel, and heating oil in Europe reached their highest levels in two years, raising concerns about a lasting inflationary shock and paralysis of supply chains in the food sector.

Sharp drop in DAX index

The German index lost nearly 7% in two days, reacting to geopolitical risks related to Iran.

Record fuel prices

Costs of gasoline and diesel reached the highest levels in two years, hitting consumers and logistics.

LNG stability in question

Despite Uniper's assurances of no disruptions, the market expects long-term higher gas prices.

The situation in the Middle East led to a sharp collapse of investment sentiment in Europe. The German stock index DAX, a barometer of the continent's largest economy, lost nearly 1000 points in just two sessions, representing a drop of nearly seven percent. Analysts at Franklin Templeton warn that the economic consequences of the war in Iran will hit Europe much harder than the United States due to greater dependence on regional energy supplies and the geographical proximity to the theater of war. The sell-off on the trading floors also affected other European stock exchanges, reacting to chaos in air corridors and rising transport costs. Pilots' trade unions are already predicting a drastic increase in airfare prices due to the need to avoid the conflict zone. The Middle East accounts for supplies of about one-third of the world's oil transported by sea, and historical fuel crises in 1973 and 1979 showed that destabilization of this region permanently hinders global GDP growth. Nervousness has taken over gas stations in Germany and Switzerland, and local media report incidents of panic among drivers. Fuel prices are rising at a rate unseen in two years, which directly translates into forecasts for the food industry. Experts predict a 'price shock,' meaning a price shock for essential products, caused by a spike in logistics and energy costs. Although the company Uniper reassures that supplies of LNG are not currently directly threatened, the German Federal Network Agency expects high raw material prices to persist in the longer term. In response to the crisis, representatives of state governments plan urgent summits with industry leaders to develop protective mechanisms for the most energy-intensive sectors. „Ruhe bewahren ist die erste Anlegerpflicht” (Keeping calm is the first investor duty.) — Robert Halver Despite the tragic situation on the market front, some analysts point to potential opportunities arising from the sharp discount. It is emphasized that the fundamentals of many companies remain strong, and the current declines are emotional in nature, driven by fear of escalation. On the other hand, representatives of the heating industry appeal to individual consumers for restraint in purchases of heating oil, hoping for price stabilization after the first wave of panic passes. However, the situation remains dynamic, and each subsequent airstrike in the Persian Gulf region immediately translates into increased volatility on the stock exchanges in London, Paris, and Frankfurt.

Mentioned People

  • Martin Lück — Investment strategist at Franklin Templeton, analyzing the impact of the conflict on Europe.
  • Robert Halver — Market expert calling on investors to remain calm during the crash.