The latest data from the "Living 2040" report indicates inevitable transformations in the Polish real estate market. Although currently 87 percent of citizens own their homes, forecasts for 2040 predict a drastic decline in this indicator. Rising square meter prices and decreasing mortgage availability are forcing younger generations to choose long-term rentals, bringing the Polish social model closer to Western European standards.
The Twilight of Traditional Ownership
By 2040, the percentage of Poles living in their own properties will significantly fall below the current 87 percent.
Expansion of Institutional Rental
The PRS sector will be dominated by large investment funds, offering an alternative to unstable private rentals.
Economic and Price Barriers
The increase in property prices outpacing wage growth excludes broad social groups from the purchase market.
Analysis of real estate market trends indicates that Poland stands on the brink of a historic paradigm shift in housing. For decades, the priority for Poles was "living in one's own home," which led to a situation where nearly 9 out of 10 people live in owner-occupied properties. However, the latest industry studies prove that entry barriers to the market are becoming insurmountable for the average citizen. The main cause is the disproportion between wage growth dynamics and rapidly increasing land and construction material prices, which directly translates into final property prices. Mass home ownership in Poland is a result of the post-1989 transformation, when people were allowed to buy out company and cooperative apartments for a fraction of their market value, creating a social structure unique on a European scale.Experts predict that by 2040, the share of ownership in the market will decline, and its place will be taken by professional institutional rental. The PRS market is growing dynamically, attracting foreign capital that sees potential in Poland to build portfolios of thousands of units intended exclusively for rent. This change stems not only from economic necessity but also from lifestyle modifications – young Poles increasingly value professional mobility, which a 30-year mortgage often does not facilitate. „There is a fundamental shift in Poland's housing structure as the ownership-based model loses its viability under price pressure.” — Living 2040 Report This phenomenon carries significant social consequences. A transformation towards a society of tenants means the necessity to develop new regulations protecting tenants from unjustified rent increases. Simultaneously, creditworthiness remains a key threshold that becomes unattainable for many people. Therefore, the future of the market will belong to entities capable of combining sustainable rental costs with a high standard of service, which in the perspective of two decades will permanently change the landscape of Polish cities.