The turn of February and March 2026 brings unprecedented warming, with temperatures locally reaching 20 degrees Celsius. While the spring-like weather delights residents, forecasters from the IMGW and hydrological services are warning of sudden thaws. Hydrologists have issued red and yellow alerts for many regions, monitoring rising river levels. Experts indicate that the rapid outflow of meltwater in the absence of retention could negatively impact water resources, although the main threat currently remains river flooding and local inundations.
Extreme Temperature Records
Thermometers in many Polish cities are showing up to 20 degrees Celsius, a result of the inflow of tropical air.
Hydrological Alerts on Rivers
Red and yellow warnings for thaws have been issued for Mazovia and northeastern Poland due to exceedances of alarm levels.
Risk of Spring Drought
The rapid outflow of meltwater without rainfall threatens soil moisture and could impact agriculture.
Forecasted Return of Winter
Despite the current warming, forecasters do not rule out a return of frosts and snowstorms in mid-March.
The last days of February 2026 will go down in the history of Polish meteorology as a period of extreme thermal anomalies. The inflow of tropical air masses has caused mercury columns in many regions of the country, particularly in the southwest and center, to approach the 20-degree Celsius mark. This phenomenon, described by forecasters as a "heat explosion," has dominated the forecast for the upcoming weekend. However, this sudden change in weather carries serious hydrological threats. Rapid thaws have caused a swift increase in water levels in the Vistula and Oder river basins. The most difficult situation is currently in Mazovia, where the alarm level on the Mławka River has been exceeded, resulting in the announcement of a red alert. The situation in agriculture is also becoming tense. High temperatures have triggered a premature start of vegetation, forcing farmers to make decisions about early fertilization of winter crops, such as wheat and rapeseed. Climate experts, however, point out the other side of the coin: the lack of retention of meltwater in the soil could lead to moisture deficits already at the beginning of spring. February 1929 was the coldest month in Poland's measurement history, with temperatures locally dropping below -40 degrees. The current trend, where February resembles April temperatures, is a clear signal of progressing climate change. Meteorologists are also analyzing scenarios for March, indicating that despite the current heatwave, a return of winter with intense snowfall is possible in the middle of next month. Such weather variability negatively affects people suffering from meteoropathy, as noted by doctors in regions with the greatest temperature fluctuations. Long-term forecasts evoke mixed feelings. On one hand, predictions of a "spring explosion" for Easter and a hot summer offer hope for favorable recreational weather; on the other hand, concerns about the stability of aquatic ecosystems are growing. The current IMGW continues to monitor flood threats, issuing further second-degree warnings for central and northeastern Poland. Residents of flood-prone areas have been called upon to maintain special vigilance, as local water surges can occur without additional rainfall, solely due to ice melting in the upper parts of river basins and on lowland rivers.