Heavy El Niño Rains Threaten Peru's Record Fruit Exports

The Peruvian government has declared a state of emergency in 14 out of 25 regions of the country, responding to the arrival of the coastal El Niño phenomenon. The anomaly, which typically brings warmer ocean waters to the coast of Peru, is this time manifesting with exceptionally heavy and torrential rainfall, leading to floods and landslides. The authorities' decision, taken for 60 days, aims to expedite rescue operations, protect infrastructure, and efficiently allocate budget funds in the most threatened areas. The main concern is the impact of these conditions on the agricultural sector, a pillar of the national economy and a source of record export earnings. In 2025, the value of fresh fruit exports from Peru reached approximately 4.5 billion dollars. 4.5 mld USD — Value of fresh fruit exports from Peru in 2025 Particularly vulnerable are crops of key importance to the global market: Hass avocado in the La Libertad region and grapes in the Ica region. Intense rains create ideal conditions for the development of fungal diseases, lead to fruit rot on trees and bushes, and increase the risk of soil erosion, which could significantly reduce both the quantity and quality of this year's harvest. Producers, aware of the risk, are taking remedial actions, such as accelerated harvesting of part of the crops, but the scale of the phenomenon may exceed preventive capabilities. The El Niño phenomenon is a recurring natural climate anomaly that occurs every few years, involving the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific. Although its global effects are complex and varied, for the western coast of South America, including Peru, it is typically associated with increased rainfall, which disrupts the usually dry and stable weather conditions prevailing on coastal deserts. In the past, strong El Niño episodes, such as the one in 1997-1998, caused catastrophic floods and economic losses in Peru counted in billions of dollars. Financial analysts from Bloomberg and Reuters point out that potential problems in the Peruvian agricultural sector could cause repercussions on the global fruit market, contributing to rising prices for avocados and grapes in the coming months. Peru is one of the world's largest exporters of these products, and any serious disruption in supply is directly reflected in retail prices in Europe, the United States, and Asia. Local experts, such as a representative from the Institute for Economics and Business Research in Lima, forecast that as a result of bad weather, the country's agricultural production could decline by up to 0.5% within a year. In the longer term, supply stability is also threatened, which could affect contractual agreements with international retail chains. The government, despite declaring a state of emergency, faces the difficult challenge of reconciling direct aid to affected areas with a long-term strategy to support agriculture in the context of increasingly frequent and intense climate phenomena.