Poland is facing extreme weather contrasts. While IMGW is extending hydrological warnings due to swollen rivers in the north, long-term forecasts predict one of the driest and warmest Marches in measurement history. A mass of air with Saharan dust is approaching Europe, and forecasters predict temperatures reaching up to 20 degrees Celsius, which accelerates vegetation but raises concerns about water resources in agriculture.
Record heat and Saharan dust
Tropical air masses are flowing into Poland, which will raise the temperature to 20 degrees Celsius and bring sediment from the Sahara.
Hydrological alerts in the north
IMGW maintains warnings for high water levels; exceedances of alarm levels are recorded on rivers in Mazovia and Pomerania.
Specter of extreme drought
Despite local thaws, forecasts for March indicate an extreme lack of precipitation, which may threaten spring crops.
The beginning of March 2026 brings a fundamental change in the barometric system over Europe, resulting in the premature arrival of spring. The Iackl high stabilizes the weather in most regions, but the hydrological situation remains tense. IMGW maintains alerts for northern Poland, where alarm levels have been exceeded on several rivers, including the Mławka and Czarna Woda. Although local flooding of basements and properties occurs, the dominant trend is becoming a severe lack of precipitation. Experts warn that the coming weeks could bring record drought, which, combined with the forecasted high temperature, poses a serious challenge for the crop insurance sector and water management. March in the Polish climate has historically been a month of 'Lent fighting Carnival', meaning the clash of freezing Arctic masses with warmer ones from the south, which regularly led to destructive ice-jam floods on the Vistula and Oder rivers.Simultaneously, international organizations, including UN agencies, report the fading of the phenomenon La Niña and the possible return of the phase El Niño before the end of the year. For Poland, this means a potential intensification of heatwaves in the coming summer. Currently, however, the most attention is drawn to the cloud of Saharan dust, which is moving from Africa towards France and Germany, soon reaching Polish territory. This phenomenon will affect sky haziness and may settle on car bodies, but above all, it is a signal of the inflow of very warm tropical air masses. 20°C — may reach locally in the first half of MarchIn the Tatra Mountains, nature is reacting to the warming in a flash – in the Chochołowska Valley, the first crocuses have already been observed, which usually happens several weeks later. Despite the dominant warmth, nights can still bring ground frosts, which is particularly dangerous for plants that have prematurely resumed vegetation. Farmers face a dilemma regarding fertilization timing, trying to balance rare opportunities to enter waterlogged fields with the upcoming period of extreme soil moisture deficiency. „The end of La Niña does not mean a pause in long-term climate change, which is driven by human activities.” — UN Statement
Perspektywy mediów: Liberal media place strong emphasis on linking weather anomalies to global warming and the need for immediate ecological reforms. Conservative media focus on practical aspects for agriculture and local security, less often referring to climate theories.