Poland at a Nuclear Crossroads: France Offers an Umbrella, and Poles Want Their Own Weapon

The debate on Poland's nuclear potential has entered a new, critical phase, driven by both growing geopolitical threat and specific allied proposals. The latest public opinion research indicates an unprecedented shift: the majority of citizens are in favor of Poland acquiring nuclear weapons. Importantly, the greatest enthusiasm is shown by voters of the Civic Coalition, which constitutes a radical change compared to previous years, when these postulates were the domain exclusively of right-wing circles. Experts suggest that society has stopped perceiving the atom as an abstract threat and started treating it as a necessary guarantor of sovereignty in the face of Russia's aggressive policy. Simultaneously on the international arena, Paris is making a bold move, positioning itself as the leader of European defense autonomy. The French proposal of 'advanced deterrence' assumes that French nuclear forces could form the core of continental protection, complementing or in the future replacing the American Nuclear Sharing. However, this initiative evokes mixed feelings in Warsaw. While the government of Donald Tusk shows interest in tightening cooperation with France, the Chancellery of President Andrzej Duda expresses deep concern over the lack of transparency in these talks. Marcin Przydacz publicly stated that the head of state was not informed about the details of negotiations with Paris, which deepens the dualism in Polish foreign policy. Since 2014, after Russia's annexation of Crimea, NATO's eastern flank countries have regularly raised the postulate of strengthening nuclear deterrence. Poland has repeatedly applied to join the American Nuclear Sharing program, but Washington has so far shown restraint in this matter.Critics of the French offer, including historian Sławomir Cenckiewicz and the head of BBN Jacek Siewiera, raise arguments about Paris's limited credibility. Siewiera openly admitted that he does not believe in France's real readiness to share control over its arsenal, which is the foundation of their great power position. „Nie wierzę w to, że Francja podzieli się swoim potencjałem nuklearnym w taki sposób, by inne państwa miały realny wpływ na jego użycie.” (I do not believe that France will share its nuclear potential in such a way that other countries have real influence over its use.) — Jacek SiewieraIn the background of the political dispute, German media suggest that Berlin could become the financial backbone for a new European nuclear shield, making the situation even more complex. Poland thus faces a choice between loyalty to a stable, though distant, alliance with the USA, and a new, but less certain, vision of a powerful Europe under French leadership.