Failure of Trump's Tariff Policy? US Trade Deficit Hits Record High

Official data from the US Department of Commerce for 2025 undermine the Donald Trump administration's narrative about the effectiveness of protectionism. The total trade deficit in goods and services amounted to $901.5 billion, representing only a 0.2% decrease compared to 2024. However, the real concern is the goods sector, where the budget gap deepened by 2.1%, reaching a historic maximum of $1.24 trillion. This situation occurred despite the imposition of double-digit tariffs on most imported goods. Trade deficit has become a central point of political dispute, and experts indicate that rising costs are borne by American consumers, not foreign suppliers. The geopolitical structure of trade has undergone significant transformation. The deficit with China fell to $202 billion, the lowest result in 21 years. However, this success is illusory, as American businesses, fearing tariffs, redirected supply chains. As a result, record negative balances were recorded with Mexico and Vietnam. The contemporary US trade war with China began in 2018, when the first Trump administration began imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns. The situation was worsened by data from December 2025, when the deficit surged to $70.3 billion monthly, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of $55.5 billion. This phenomenon is attributed to massive stockpiling by companies trying to get ahead of further tariff restrictions. Against this data, an open conflict has erupted between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve became the target of attacks after the publication of research by the New York branch of the bank, which showed the negative impact of tariffs on the economy. Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, sharply criticized political pressure from Kevin Hassett, the president's economic advisor. Hassett called for consequences against the researchers, which was perceived as an attempt to undermine the independence of the world's most important financial institution. „This is another step towards compromising the Fed's independence, which is a dangerous precedent for market stability.” — Neel Kashkari US Trade Deficit (goods and services): 2022: 923.7, 2024: 903.5, 2025: 901.51.24 trillion — dollars was the record goods deficitChange in trading partners in 2025: Deficit with China: 2024 Level → Nearly 20% lower; Deficit with Mexico: Previous records → Historic maximum; Total imports (December): $345 billion USD → $357.6 billion USDEmphasizes the negative impact of tariffs on inflation, the cost of living for Americans, and dangerous attempts to politicize the independent central bank. | Highlights success in reducing dependence on China and suggests the need for even more aggressive actions towards Mexico and Vietnam.