Study: Climate change increased rainfall intensity on the Iberian Peninsula by one-third

The latest report from an international team of experts under the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative sheds new light on the causes of the destructive weather events that occurred between January 16 and February 17, 2026. The analysis proves that days with the most intense rainfall are now about 30 percent wetter than in the pre-industrial era. In the southern part of the studied region, this increase reached as high as 36 percent, while the north recorded a jump of 29 percent. Such a radical change in precipitation characteristics is a direct consequence of atmospheric warming by nearly 1.3 degrees Celsius, which translates into a greater capacity of air to accumulate and rapidly release water vapor. Scientists analyzed the impact of a series of nine powerful low-pressure systems that swept across Southwestern Europe and North Africa. In some Spanish cities, such as Grazalema, as much rain fell in just a few days as is typically recorded in an entire year. The tragic toll of these events includes over 50 fatalities and enormous material losses. Experts emphasize that without human influence, such extreme events would be much rarer and less severe for local infrastructure and resident safety. Climate change attribution studies, initiated on a large scale in the last decade, allow for precise determination of the extent to which specific weather events are a result of global warming, rather than natural variability in climate cycles. The development of the study involved specialists from twelve countries, including Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and the United Kingdom. Their results constitute a clear warning for urban planners and governments. The intensification of the hydrological cycle forces a revision of existing flood protection systems, which were designed for much milder weather scenarios. If global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency of similar "storm trains" and their destructive power will increase further, threatening the stability of the region. „Estamos seguros de que el cambio climático hace que estas intensas lluvias sean más severas.” (We are confident that climate change makes these intense rains more severe.) — Friederike Otto Increase in rainfall intensity by region: Southern region: 36, Overall average: 30, Northern region: 29 36% — higher rainfall intensity in southern Spain