The latest election poll in Brazil shows an unexpected tie between former President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of controversial ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro. According to a Datafolha survey, both candidates have 42% support in a hypothetical second-round runoff. The result for Flávio Bolsonaro, who has seen a rapid surge in ratings in a short time, surprises analysts and indicates the potential return of far-right rhetoric to the center of Brazilian politics. Concurrently, an internal debate is ongoing within the Bolsonarist camp over whether Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, would be a stronger candidate.

Historic Poll Tie

A poll by the Datafolha institute shows that Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva each have 42% of the vote in a simulated second round of the presidential election. This is the first time the former president's son has matched the experienced left-wing leader in polls.

Rapid Surge in Support

Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, has recorded a spectacular rise in ratings over the past few months, moving from the margins to the top of the polls. His campaign is based on inheriting his father's electorate and continuing his political project.

Family Candidacy Debate

A debate is ongoing within the camp of the former president's supporters over whether Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair's wife, would be a stronger candidate to lead the far right. Part of the electorate sees her as less entangled in controversies and scandals, which could attract more moderate voters.

Surprise for Political Observers

The rapid evolution of the polls and Flávio Bolsonaro's potential have surprised many commentators who did not foresee that the former president's son could so effectively mobilize the electorate. His rising support calls into question previous forecasts of an easy victory for Lula.

Ahead of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, a significant reshuffling is taking place on the political scene. The latest poll by the Datafolha institute, published in late February, reveals a historic tie between former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Both potential candidates have 42% support in a hypothetical second-round clash. The result for the son of controversial ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro is particularly surprising given that just a few months ago his ratings were far behind Lula's. Simultaneously, an internal debate is taking place within the Bolsonarist camp regarding the optimal candidacy. Some supporters believe that Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, could be a stronger and less controversial representative of the far right. Her image is perceived as less entangled in the numerous judicial scandals and accusations that have affected the male members of the family, including Jair himself and his sons. Michelle's supporters argue that her candidacy would have broader coalition potential and could attract more moderate voters who rejected Jair Bolsonaro but are not ready for Lula's return. Brazil's political scene since the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff in 2016 and the Lava Jato corruption scandal has been characterized by deep polarization. The 2018 election was won by Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain and political outsider whose far-right, anti-establishment rhetoric gained mass support. His tenure, marked by controversial pandemic policies, attacks on democratic institutions, and environmental degradation, ended with defeat in the 2022 election to Lula, who returned to office after being acquitted in criminal trials.The rise of Flávio Bolsonaro is interpreted as a sign of the vitality of the Bolsonarist electorate, which, despite the father's defeat and his numerous legal problems, has not dispersed. Flávio's campaign is directly based on inheriting his father's political project, which resonates with voters who nostalgically remember Jair's rule. The speed with which the senator has advanced in the polls has surprised many observers who predicted a gradual weakening of the far right after losing power. The current situation indicates that the upcoming election campaign could once again be extremely tight and dominated by polarizing rhetoric.

Mentioned People

  • Flávio Bolsonaro — Senator, eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, presidential candidate in polls
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — Former and current President of Brazil, leader of the Workers' Party, main rival in polls
  • Jair Bolsonaro — Former President of Brazil, father of Flávio and husband of Michelle, icon of the Brazilian far right
  • Michelle Bolsonaro — Former First Lady of Brazil, wife of Jair Bolsonaro, considered as an alternative right-wing candidate