Bolsonaro's Son Ties with Lula in Presidential Poll

The Brazilian election campaign ahead of the 2026 vote is gaining unexpected momentum due to the sharp rise in support for Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. According to the latest poll published by the renowned institute Datafolha at the end of February, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has, for the first time in history, drawn level with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In a hypothetical second-round election, both politicians receive identical support at 42 percent. This result is particularly surprising, as just a few months ago Flávio Bolsonaro was far behind Lula, and his chances of real competition were assessed as slim. The speed with which he caught up to the head of state has surprised many political observers and commentators who had predicted a gradual weakening of the Bolsonarist movement after losing power in 2022. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign is directly based on inheriting his father's political project and electorate. The senator openly invokes the legacy of Jair Bolsonaro, which resonates clearly among voters who nostalgically recall his controversial, right-wing rule. The rise in support for the former leader's son is interpreted as a sign of vitality and consolidation of the far-right electorate, which, despite the father's defeat and his numerous legal problems – including investigations against him – has not dispersed but has united around a new, familial face. „This isn't just a normal poll bump. It's a signal that the Bolsonaro voter base hasn't just remained intact – it might be even more fired up than before.” — Anonymous political analyst cited by Bloomberg Simultaneously, within the Bolsonarist camp itself, an internal debate is taking place regarding the optimal candidacy. Some supporters and advisors believe that a stronger and less controversial representative of the far right could be Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady. Her image is perceived as less entangled in the numerous judicial scandals and accusations that have affected the male members of the family, including Jair himself and his sons. Supporters of Michelle argue that her candidacy would have broader coalition potential and could attract more moderate voters who rejected Jair Bolsonaro but are not ready for Lula's return. This internal rivalry introduces additional dynamics and uncertainty into the electoral process on the right. The contemporary Brazilian political scene has been shaped in the shadow of deep polarization, whose roots trace back to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016 and the massive Lava Jato corruption scandal. The 2018 election was won by Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain and political outsider, whose far-right, anti-establishment rhetoric gained mass support. His rule, marked by controversial pandemic policies, attacks on democratic institutions, and degradation of the Amazon rainforest environment, ended with defeat in the 2022 election to Lula, who returned to office after being acquitted in criminal cases.The current polling situation indicates that the upcoming election campaign could once again be extremely fierce and dominated by polarizing rhetoric. Flávio Bolsonaro's result poses a serious challenge for Lula, who must face not only criticism of his ruling coalition but also the revived strength of the right organized around the Bolsonaro dynasty. The Datafolha poll also confirms that Brazilian politics remains deeply divided, with the electorate concentrated around two strong, antagonistic poles. The coming months will show whether Flávio Bolsonaro can maintain momentum and whether internal disputes within his camp will weaken the right's chances of regaining power. Regardless of the final candidate, the 2026 elections are shaping up to be another battle over the future shape of Latin America's largest economy.