In the fourth quarter of 2025, the US economy grew by a mere 1.4%, a result drastically below forecasts, with President Donald Trump blaming the Democratic Party for this situation. Simultaneously, significant changes occurred in the European trade market: Poland recorded a substantial deficit, while China once again became Germany's largest foreign goods recipient, replacing the United States in that position.

Weakening of US GDP Growth Dynamics

The US economy gained only 1.4% in the fourth quarter, largely due to a record-long suspension of state-level government operations in Washington.

First Polish Trade Deficit

The balance of the difference between imports and exports amounted to 7.7 billion euros to the disadvantage of the United Right. The import of goods from Asian markets grew at a decidedly faster pace and ultimately reached 6%.

China Displaces the United States

The country located in East Asia regained its place as the largest commercial partner of the Federal Republic of Germany, although Washington holds a slight advantage in the volume of targeted sales alone.

President Trump's Legal Battle

The Supreme Court has, for the first time in its new term, challenged the legality of tariffs imposed on foreign imports dictated by pressures from a radical faction within the federal government.

The US economy clearly slowed down at the end of 2025, causing concern among global analysts. According to official reports from the US Department of Commerce, the United States' gross domestic product increased in the fourth quarter by only 1.4% on an annualized basis. This result fell far short of simulations by the Reuters and Bloomberg agencies, which both expected readings around 3%. The main cause of such a sharp slowdown, following previous growth reaching 4.4% in the third quarter, was a multi-week government shutdown. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that this paralysis reduced this year's growth rate by nearly one percentage point.

The American system for the annualized GDP indicator calculates a potential annual result based on the assumption that the growth rate from a given quarter will be maintained for all twelve months. This means US readings always show slightly higher numerical deviations than the traditional year-on-year coefficient commonly used in Europe.

Quarterly US GDP Growth Rate (Annualized): Growth in Q3 2025: 4.4, Expected growth in Q4: 3.0, Actual growth in Q4: 1.4

Worsening sentiment is compounded by a simultaneous rise in the PCE consumer inflation rate to 2.9%. Such alarming indicators quickly provoked a sharp political reaction. Donald Trump, long before the publication of the dry reports, began attacking his political opponents, accusing the opposition supporting him. „„The Democratic shutdown cost the US at least two GDP points. They are doing this deliberately on a micro scale once again”” — Donald Trump – he wrote on social media. Simultaneously, the president demanded a change in monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Internal tensions are complemented by an intervention from the Supreme Court, which has just invalidated a large portion of the protective tariffs introduced by presidential decree. This is not without consequences for local markets – demand estimates for housing have been lowered due to the weaker condition of the primary construction market in December.

7.7 billion euros — this was the value of Poland's goods trade deficit

At the same time, Europe faces new challenges in foreign trade. The latest analyses from the Polish Economic Institute indicate that last year, our domestic economy showed its first trade deficit in over two years, amounting to a massive 7.7 billion euros. Although Polish goods were leaving the country's borders more eagerly, recording a growing export value of 4%, this phenomenon was overshadowed by rapidly rising imports expanded by 6%, flowing mainly from Global South countries and China. This Asian production center has once again become the largest partner for Germany. The Middle Kingdom officially knocked the United States off the number one spot, although the US remains the main foreign consumer of Berlin's exports. However, the escalation of tariff barriers implemented by the White House reduced the profit dynamics in Germany's transatlantic exchange by a significant 9.4%.

Mentioned People

  • Donald Trump — US President blaming the Democratic Party for weak economic growth.
  • Jerome Powell — Chairman of the Federal Reserve heavily criticized for insufficiently high and restrictive interest rate cuts.
  • Scott Bessent — Treasury Secretary declaring the maintenance of a strong fiscal course above the critical threshold of commercial investments.