Monetary Policy Council cuts interest rates by 25 basis points despite global tensions

The Monetary Policy Council's decision to lower the main reference rate to 5.25% constitutes a clear pro-growth signal sent by the National Bank of Poland. The body decided to loosen monetary policy despite the ongoing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which traditionally generates inflationary pressure through rising oil and gas prices. The Monetary Policy Council judged, however, that domestic disinflationary factors are strong enough to allow relief for borrowers. Economists from XTB indicate that today's cut may close the current easing cycle, and rates will remain at the new level for many months, which triggered an immediate reaction in financial markets: treasury bond yields fell, and the zloty slightly slowed its appreciation against the euro and the dollar. The system of interest rates in Poland evolved from the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, when the discount rate exceeded 100%, to the modern inflation targeting model introduced in 1998.At the same time, the Ministry of Finance and Eurostat published data confirming the exceptional resilience of the Polish labor market. Poland recorded the lowest unemployment rate in the entire European Union, which Minister Andrzej Domański described as the foundation of the country's macroeconomic stability. This data contrasts, however, with local concerns in Pomerania, where an increase in the number of young people remaining without work is being observed. Against the backdrop of this information, the Warsaw Stock Exchange shows signs of a thaw after Tuesday's sell-off, suggesting investors are not afraid of a lasting bear market. Simultaneously, the Polish luxury retail sector is undergoing a transformation – the closure of the only Gucci boutique in the Vitkac department store after 15 years of presence becomes a symbol of the premium segment shifting to digital channels. „Polska ma najniższe bezrobocie w całej Unii Europejskiej. To wielki sukces naszej gospodarki i dowód na jej ogromną odporność.” (Poland has the lowest unemployment rate in the entire European Union. This is a great success for our economy and proof of its enormous resilience.) — Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański In the agricultural sector, the situation remains tense due to the mass import of cheaper products, forcing the government to consider new protective mechanisms. The Deputy Minister of Agriculture announced an analysis of possible subsidies for fertilizers, which would compensate producers for high energy costs. In the background of these events, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego summarized 12 years of the de minimis guarantee program, which injected the small and medium-sized enterprise sector with an amount exceeding PLN 400 million. The overall picture of the economy in March 2026 is painted as a combination of macroeconomic optimism with the necessity for restructuring in selected consumer and agricultural sectors. NBP: 2026-01: 5.75, 2026-02: 5.50, 2026-03: 5.25