Cooling of the Polish Labor Market Amid Raised Growth Forecasts by EBRD

The beginning of 2026 on the Polish labor market brought clear warning signals. According to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office the registered unemployment rate rose in January to 6 percent. This means that nearly 934 thousand people remain without work. Analysts emphasize that while part of this increase can be attributed to seasonal factors, the deep decline in the number of new job offers is concerning, reaching levels not seen in 15 years. A particularly difficult situation concerns young people up to 25 years of age, where the unemployment rate is as high as 13.5 percent, representing one of the highest growth rates in the European Union. In opposition to the difficult situation for workers are the latest macroeconomic forecasts. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) raised its predictions for Polish GDP for 2026 to 3.7%. The driving forces are expected to be public investments financed by EU funds and record spending on armaments. Poland currently ranks in the top fifteen countries with the largest defense budgets in the world, which generates demand in the domestic arms industry, whose leaders, such as PGZ, recorded revenue growth of over 30 percent year-on-year. Nevertheless, experts point to risks such as stagnation in Germany or the slow inflow of new orders in Polish industrial processing, where the order portfolio has been shrinking for two years. The unemployment rate in Poland hovered around 5% for most of the last decade, a result of dynamic transformation and the inflow of foreign investments after 2004.An interesting phenomenon is the dynamic development of entrepreneurship among Ukrainian citizens. In 2025, Ukrainian citizens continued their economic activity in Poland, and their share in new registrations of sole proprietorships remained at a high level of about 10 percent of all new entries. The greatest activity of Ukrainian companies is concentrated in the Masovian Voivodeship. Meanwhile, in the sphere of public finances, a debate continues over the sector deficit, which according to estimates amounted to about 6% of GDP in 2025. Despite political friction and opposition warnings about a so-called Greek scenario, banking analysts assess fiscal prospects as stable, pointing to a 12% increase in VAT revenues last year. „Najnowsze dane Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego pokazują wzrost stopy bezrobocia do 6 procent i blisko 934 tysiące zarejestrowanych bezrobotnych.” — Sebastian Gajewski The complexity of the situation is complemented by the video game market, which after a period of boom is entering a phase of revenue stabilization, and the growing impact of imports from China, to which Poland however seems more resilient than neighboring countries thanks to the diversification of its product specializations.

Perspektywy mediów: Liberal media emphasize the optimistic GDP forecasts and stabilization of public finances as a success of the current economic direction. Right-wing media focus on the increase in unemployment to 6% and warn about the growing public debt and the threat of insolvency.