The turn of February and March 2026 brings a distinct warming to Central Europe, with temperatures locally reaching 16–17 degrees Celsius. While the days are marked by sunshine and spring-like weather, the nights remain frosty, posing a challenge for agriculture and horticulture. Experts warn of plant fungal diseases and the effects of rapid snowmelt, which have revealed damage to lawns and winter crops from the past winter.
Spring warmth in Europe
Temperatures in Poland and Germany reach 15–16 degrees Celsius thanks to stable high-pressure systems.
Threats to agriculture
Rapid thaws and nighttime frosts favor the development of snow mold and the leaching of fertilizers.
Changeable forecasts for March
IMGW warns of dynamic weather at the turn of the months, with possible returns of cold.
The end of February 2026 is dominated by strong high-pressure systems, which effectively block the inflow of cooler air masses, opening the way for warmth from the south. In Poland, particularly in Masovia and the western voivodeships, thermometers show up to 15 degrees Celsius. Similar weather is recorded in Germany, where in Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saarland, temperatures hover around 16 degrees. Italy has already declared the definitive end of winter, enjoying stable, sunny weather, although locally there are light rainfalls. However, such rapid warming causes justified concern among agrometeorologists and farmers, who are worried about the condition of crops after the recent thaws. The situation in agriculture is complex, as high daytime temperatures combined with nighttime frosts favor the development of pathogens. Experts point to the problem of snow mold and basal stem rot, which attack weakened plants. An additional risk factor is the fate of fertilizers spread before the warming – intense snowmelt may have led to their leaching from the soil, which will force agricultural producers to adjust their fertilization plans. Garden owners, on the other hand, are struggling with moss and soil acidification, suggesting the need for lawn liming in the coming weeks. The phenomenon of anticyclonic blocking, currently observed over Europe, has historically been responsible for the largest heatwaves and prolonged periods of drought in the Mediterranean basin.Despite optimistic forecasts for the weekend, the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) tempers enthusiasm, announcing that the beginning of meteorological spring will be very changeable. In the mountains, especially in the Beskids and Tatra Mountains, trail conditions remain difficult due to ice and melting snow, requiring tourists to exercise particular caution. Long-term forecasts for summer 2026 suggest that this year's anomalies may herald an exceptionally hot and dynamic season, fitting into the decades-long trend of climate warming in our part of the continent. „To będzie bardzo nietypowy marzec, gdzie starcie mas powietrza przyniesie nam pełen wachlarz pogodowy.” (This will be a very atypical March, where the clash of air masses will bring us a full spectrum of weather.) — IMGW Expert Poland, lying in the zone of a transitional temperate climate, has for centuries witnessed violent exchanges of polar and tropical air masses, which historically often led to crop failures.
Mentioned People
- Witold Szczepaniak — Professor analyzing the impact of thaws on the effectiveness of applied mineral fertilizers.